EDF cuts full-year earnings outlook as heatwave drives low power prices

EDF is the sharpest market signal of the week: the French utility is guiding for lower full-year earnings, pointing to heatwave-driven demand patterns that have coincided with low wholesale prices rather than the elevated prices a supply squeeze might otherwise produce. The headline underscores how extended heat events can suppress capture prices for dispatchable generators when solar output is simultaneously high.

On the same morning, Engie reported H1 earnings up 3%, with strength concentrated in gas trading and regulated grid income, two revenue streams less exposed to spot power price compression. The divergence between the two utilities reflects how merchant power exposure is reshaping European utility earnings in a low-price environment.

On the structural side, ACER is now formally reviewing a joint proposal from all nominated electricity market operators to revise the methodology underpinning the price coupling, continuous trading matching, and intraday auction algorithms. The deadline for ACER's decision is 21 January 2027. Separately, EEX revised its 2026 EUA auction calendar and published the 2027 schedule, and announced new natural gas futures, extended expiry tenors, and an aligned options offering across gas and power derivatives.