El Niño to lift European irradiance above average through end of 2026

Solcast, a DNV company, published its H2 2026 irradiance outlook on 10 July, forecasting above-normal solar resource across much of Europe, Southeast Asia, northern South America, and eastern Australia. The driver is a strengthening El Niño pattern. For European asset operators and PPA offtakers, the combined H1 observation and H2 forecast points to a full-year irradiance surplus, which is meaningful for P50/P90 reassessments mid-cycle.

Model agreement is highest in Southeast Asia, where the El Niño signal is clearest. North America is the weakest link in the forecast, with Solcast flagging the greatest uncertainty there. Europe sits in the high-confidence, above-normal camp, though Solcast does not disaggregate by bidding zone in this summary.

For capture-price dynamics, sustained above-normal generation across European zones through Q3–Q4 2026 would add downward pressure on midday prices, particularly in solar-heavy markets such as Spain, Italy, and Germany. Asset managers pricing long-term routes-to-market should weight the irradiance upside against that capture-price risk.