Elia launches trial publication of imbalance price forecasts

Elia published a trial set of imbalance price forecasts, marking the first time the Belgian TSO has made forward-looking settlement-price signals publicly available. The move targets balancing responsible parties operating in the Belgian zone, who currently face imbalance exposure priced only after each quarter-hour settles.

The trial status is significant. Elia has not yet committed to a permanent schedule or a fixed methodology, and the absence of granular detail in the announcement suggests the TSO is gathering feedback before locking in the product design. Analysts tracking Belgian aFRR and mFRR spreads will want to monitor how the forecast signals correlate with actual settlement prices once a data series builds up.

If the trial converts to a standing publication, it would align Belgium with a broader European push to improve balancing transparency, a direction the Clean Energy Package encourages but leaves to each TSO to implement. Per Elia's announcement, no further timeline for a permanent rollout was given.