German ancillary service saturation: lessons from Great Britain

Modo Energy published a comparative analysis examining whether the German ancillary services market is following the same saturation trajectory seen in Great Britain. The piece centres on FCR and aFRR, markets that absorbed the bulk of German BESS revenue stacks in recent years.

In GB, rapid battery build-out compressed Dynamic Containment and DC High/Low prices well before the broader market anticipated it. Modo Energy argues the German zone is structurally similar: a high initial revenue pool attracting capital, followed by capacity overshoot and price deflation. The analysis does not publish specific German price forecasts in the headline item, but the GB precedent is presented as a calibrated reference point rather than a loose analogy.

For desks active in German balancing markets, the key implication is timing: in GB, the move from first signs of margin compression to trough pricing played out over a compressed window. Whether German FCR and aFRR follow that pace depends on interconnector flows, TSO procurement volumes, and the rate of new storage commissioning in the zone, none of which Modo Energy quantifies in the available summary.