I-SEM constraint exposure flagged as grid congestion risk grows

Aurora Energy Research flagged rising constraint risk in the I-SEM in recently published analysis. The report centres on a single question: how exposed will assets be as grid congestion intensifies across the Irish bidding zone?

Constraint payments and curtailment costs in the I-SEM are settled separately from energy market revenues. That separation means assets with high constraint exposure can face revenue shortfalls that are invisible in simple capture-price models. Aurora's framing suggests the gap between modelled and realised revenues is widening as renewable build outpaces transmission reinforcement.

The publication follows a broader Aurora discussion on grid deployment and supply chain bottlenecks, which identified procurement delays for transformers and cables as a structural drag on interconnection timelines across European markets. For I-SEM participants, the practical near-term read is clear: constraint exposure needs to be stress-tested against current network topology, not projected buildout.