Norway and Sweden face elevated summer power prices on weak hydro and nuclear

Norway and Sweden are heading into summer 2026 with a tighter-than-usual power balance. Reuters reports that low hydro reservoir levels in Norway and reduced nuclear output in Sweden are the twin drivers, with both factors pointing to spot prices above seasonal averages across the NO and SE bidding zones.

Hydro constraints carry the most weight in Norway, where reservoir levels below the seasonal norm reduce the buffer that typically keeps Nordic prices anchored during summer. In Sweden, nuclear availability is curtailed, removing a block of baseload capacity that would otherwise offset hydro softness. Together, the two countries face a supply gap that forward curves are already beginning to price in.

The tightness has cross-border implications. Norway and Sweden are net exporters in normal summers; reduced surplus capacity means less downward pressure on prices in interconnected zones including DK1, DK2, and the Baltic hubs. Traders pricing Nordic summer contracts or managing cross-zonal spread positions should treat the current hydro and nuclear outlook as the dominant near-term fundamental.