2026-08-11Markets

SE4 July 2026: highest YoY price swing in Europe at +88.9%

SE4 averaged €78.22/MWh in July 2026, up 88.9% from €41.42/MWh a year earlier, the largest YoY gain across all tracked zones.

By Matthias Blank · drafted with the Vantage newsroom system, approved before publication

Key takeaways

SE4 monthly mean hit €78.22/MWh in July 2026, up 88.9% from €41.42/MWh in July 2025, the largest year-on-year swing of any tracked zone.
Hydro reservoirs sat 48.2% below their 3-year norm, removing a key price-suppressing buffer and tightening the supply stack.
Wind supplied 63.7% of generation vs 57.9% a year earlier (+5.8 pp), yet prices still nearly doubled, pointing to hydro scarcity as the dominant price driver.
Just 1 negative hour recorded in July vs 6 in July 2025, consistent with tighter supply conditions keeping floor prices elevated.
Daily price spread averaged €125.88/MWh and peaked at €172.69/MWh, ranking SE4 8th of 19 tracked zones for intraday volatility.
EUA carbon allowances settled at €81.22/t, +4% month-on-month, adding marginal cost pressure across the fossil-linked stack.

SE4 averaged €78.22/MWh in July 2026, up 88.9% from €41.42/MWh in the same month of 2025, placing it at the 50th percentile of the 19-month sample window and at the top of the cross-zone year-on-year leaderboard across all tracked European zones.

Photo by StockRadars Co., on Pexels.

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