Utility guidance splits as hydro and nuclear output falters

The divergence in European utility guidance sharpened on 29–30 July. RWE lifted its earnings outlook for 2026 and 2027 after H1 2026 results beat internal targets, a rare upward revision in the current price environment. No specific EBITDA figures were disclosed in the available reports, but the upgrade signals stronger-than-expected performance across the German utility's portfolio.

On the other side of the ledger, Italy's Edison cut its 2026 guidance for a second time, attributing the revision to the Iran war impact and weak hydro generation. The back-to-back downward revisions point to compounding pressure on Edison's earnings base through the second half of the year.

Romania's nuclear output was knocked out entirely after low Danube river levels forced a shutdown of both reactors at Cernavodă, per Reuters. The plant supplies a substantial share of the Romanian zone's power, and the outage coincides with peak summer demand, compounding the hydro shortfall already weighing on the broader southeastern European grid.